Using SAS(R) Forecast Server Procedures

Cieľová skupina

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Introduction

• motivation: the large-scale forecasting problem
• layout of the course

Exploring and Processing Timestamped Data

• accumulation: transforming transactional data into time series data
• handling missing and zero-valued intervals
• aggregation: building the data hierarchy
• two feasible data layouts for SAS Forecast Server
• using the TIMEDATA procedure
• identifying systematic variation in the data
• a SAS toolbox for exploring time series data

The Design of SAS Forecast Server-Based Forecasting Software

• the design of SAS Forecast Server-based forecasting software
• functionality overview: system inputs and automatic model selection

Diagnosing and Selecting Models Automatically

• HPFDIAGNOSE procedure: automatic model specification
• model selection lists and automatic model selection

Creating Custom Models and Managing Model Lists

• creating custom models: HPFxxxSPEC procedures
• creating and managing model selection lists: HPFSELECT procedure

Using the Events Functionality

• creating and managing event variables: HPFEVENTS procedure
• using the HPFEVENTS procedure: extensions and further details

Reconciling Statistical Forecasts

• basic forecast reconciliation using the HPFRECONCILE procedure
• disaggregation methods in forecast reconciliation

Producing, Assessing, and Modifying Forecasts

• honest assessment
• preparing to generate forecasts: accumulation and aggregation of the data
• preparing to generate forecasts: creating custom models, diagnosing models, and building a model selection list
• generating forecasts: automatic model selection and forecast outputs
• assessing system accuracy and generating reconciled forecasts

Rolling the Forecasting System Forward in Time

• forecasting by exception
• assessing model degradation
• handling data updates and structural changes